The Projected Burden of Stroke in the German Federal State of Hesse up to the Year 2050: Blunt Projections

by Dr. med. Christian Foerch, Dr. med. Bjoern Misselwitz, Prof. Dr. med. Matthias Sitzer, Prof. Dr. med. Helmuth Steinmetz, PD Dr. med. Tobias Neumann-Haefelin in volume 26/2008

Foerch et al draw our attention to rising incidence rates of stroke up to 2050. On the basis of projections of the state statistical office for Hesse, they conclude that in view of our ageing population, the incidence of stroke will almost double by 2050. An increase is expected mainly in persons older than 74.

Stroke is a pathology that typically affects elderly people. The authors' data for 2005 show that more than half of the cases occurred in persons older than 74. The number of cases will therefore inevitably increase considerably over the next 40 years. Our healthcare system is not sufficiently prepared for this scenario, as the authors point out.

A fundamental problem of the data presented by the authors is the fact that the calculated future prediction is based on constant, age related stroke incidence rates. This is, however, not to be expected because the fact that people are living longer in our society is partly due to a reduction in morbidity. Careful estimates of the demands that neurological diseases of old age will place on our healthcare system are very important on the background of shifts in the age pyramid. The fact that the factors influencing these developments are undergoing change, however, means that such calculations are inevitably appreciably imprecise.
DOI: 10.3238/arztebl.2008.0844a

Prof. Dr. med. Dirk M. Hermann
Lehrstuhl für vaskuläre Neurologie, Demenz- und Altersforschung
Neurologische Klinik
Universitätsklinikum Essen
Hufelandstr. 55
45122 Essen, Germany
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